West Ham have entered a new tactical era under Graham Potter. His early weeks as manager have shown a shift from the cautious approach of previous regimes. While results have been mixed, signs of progress suggest that his methods could improve the team’s fortunes.

The Expected Goals Misconception

Many analysts highlight West Ham’s xG (expected goals) difference per 90 minutes as proof of their quality. They rank 15th in the Premier League based on this metric. This suggests they should be performing better in the standings.

However, this statistic does not account for key factors. A significant portion of their xG advantage comes from penalties. West Ham won six penalties in the previous season, the second-highest in the league. Removing penalties from the equation puts their xG difference at nearly zero.

Expected goals have become a vital tool for football fans and bettors looking to predict match outcomes. Many betting platforms now feature xG statistics, helping users assess team performances beyond basic results. Bettors rely on these numbers to identify value in markets like over/under goals, correct scores, and first goalscorer bets. 

Given this increasing interest, experts have compiled a Best Betting Sign Up Offers in 2025: Ranking the Latest Betting Offers guide, highlighting the top welcome bonuses available. These offers provide new users with incentives such as free bets and deposit matches, making it easier to test betting strategies based on xG insights.

Potter’s Tactical Changes

Graham Potter is known for tactical flexibility. Unlike his predecessors, he does not stick to one rigid formation. In his first few games, he has switched between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. His approach encourages attacking movement and fluid positional play.

One major change has been an emphasis on defensive players pushing forward. At Aston Villa, Potter used a back three featuring only one natural centre-back. This gave full-backs Aaron Cresswell and Vladimir Coufal the freedom to move into attacking areas. Despite early struggles, this approach led to West Ham’s equaliser, with wing-back Emerson arriving unmarked at the far post to score.

Potter wants to create overloads and disrupt defensive structures. His approach commits multiple players forward, a stark contrast to the defensive caution seen in previous seasons. This shift has made West Ham more aggressive in attack.

Pressing and Winning the Ball Higher Up

West Ham are now pressing with greater intensity. Potter has introduced a more proactive defensive approach, aiming to win possession in advanced areas. This was evident in their 3-2 win against Fulham, where high pressing forced defensive errors that led to goals.

The pressing numbers have improved significantly. West Ham’s turnovers in the final third have increased, showing that they are winning the ball higher up the pitch. Midfielder Edson Álvarez has also adapted well to this system, nearly doubling his pressing actions in recent matches.

This shift to a high-pressing approach suggests that Potter wants his team to control possession rather than sit back and counter. It represents a complete departure from West Ham’s previous defensive strategies.

Paquetá’s New Role

Lucas Paquetá has been given a more advanced role under Potter. Due to injuries, he has played as a false nine in two of the last three matches. While not a natural striker, he has excelled in pressing opposition defenders and linking play.

Paquetá’s work rate has been outstanding. In the win over Fulham, he made 59 pressures, nearly double his season average. His ability to disrupt defenders and create space for teammates has made him a key figure in Potter’s system.

Once a fully fit striker returns, Paquetá is expected to move back into a support role alongside Mohammed Kudus. However, his adaptability has shown that he can be effective in multiple positions.

Final Thoughts

West Ham’s early performances under Potter show clear signs of evolution. His tactics encourage attacking movement, pressing, and positional flexibility. While it will take time for his ideas to be fully implemented, the shift in approach is already visible.

If Potter continues to refine his system, West Ham could become a more unpredictable and dynamic team. Their ability to sustain this tactical shift will determine whether they can improve their league position in the coming months.